This case study is a fictional, composite scenario for educational use. It is inspired by open-source descriptions of A2/AD exclaves (such as Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania), but contains no current or classified assessment. Names, units and figures are illustrative. For the real, detailed ORBAT of the Kaliningrad exclave, see airdefense-academy §4.2.
The scenario
Between two NATO allies lies the fictional exclave of Kaskilva — a narrow, deep A2/AD bubble that holds the only land connection between those allies (the "corridor") within range, comparable to the role Kaliningrad plays relative to the Suwałki corridor. After a border incident, NATO launches Operation IRON WEDGE: an air component must temporarily establish air superiority over the corridor to protect ground reinforcements.
You are the S2/G2 analyst for the air task group. You start the IPB process from scratch.
Step 1 applied
| Element | Content in this case |
|---|---|
| AO | Airspace over the corridor and the southern flank of Kaskilva, FL0–FL350 |
| AI | 450 km radius around Kaskilva — containing the main SAM sites, fighter bases and GCI nodes |
| Time window | 72 hours — the expected duration of the ground reinforcement's vulnerable phase |
Kaskilva has almost no strategic depth — no room to withdraw air defense assets under pressure. The exclave borders NATO airspace directly on two sides, raising the risk of border overflight for both parties. The corridor itself is narrow enough that NATO reinforcement and Kaskilva's threat rings inevitably overlap.
Output of Step 1: a research agenda for Step 2 — exactly where do the threat rings lie, and is there a usable "seam" between the zones to operate through?